Evaluating Membership Growth: 2003-2013

 

Earlier this week, the Newsroom of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints released membership numbers by country.  LDS Church Growth offered analysis of the growth of membership in percentage terms and numerical increase.  There were few surprises.  Countries in Africa dominated the list of the top twenty countries with the highest annual growth rate.  The countries with the most members, the United States, Brazil and Mexico, dominated the list of countries with the largest numerical increase accounting for 49.3 percent of increase in membership.  In this post, I calculate the average annual geometric growth rate of the Church over two time periods, three years and ten years and use them to calculate the percentage increase in growth using the ten year growth rate as the base.  Whereas the geometric growth rate is the speed of growth, the percentage change in growth acts as a measure of acceleration. 

The ten countries that experienced the most rapid growth over the past decade are listed in the table 1.  To qualify for the list, a country must have more than 1,000 members in 2013.  Eight of these countries are in Africa. 

Table 1.  The Ten Countries with the Fastest Growing Membership over the Past Decade

Country	Growth Rate	2013 Membership
Cameroon	20.65	1,359
Togo	18.66	2,307
Malaysia	15.26	9,259
Guyana	15.11	5,474
Malawi	14.99	1,653
Mozambique	13.32	6,900
Uganda	13.21	12,380
Ethiopia	12.35	1,807
Botswana	10.53	3,021
Cote d’Ivoire	10.32	22,576

The ten countries that experienced the most rapid growth over the last three years are listed in table 2.  As before, a country must have more than 1,000 members by 2013 to qualify.  All ten countries on the list are in Africa.  Growth in Africa has been so rapid that it should pass both Europe and Oceania in total membership before the end of the decade!

Table 2.  The Ten Countries with the Fastest Growing Membership over the Past Three Years

Country	Growth Rate	2013 Membership
Botswana	31.42	3,021
Togo	22.79	2,307
Malawi	21.35	1,653
Ethiopia	17.11	1,807
Angola	15.50	1,436
Liberia	14.05	8,081
Sierra Leone	13.66	13,078
Madagascar	13.41	9,826
Cape Verde	13.13	10,796
Cote d’Ivoire	10.32	22,576

I used the three and ten year growth rates to calculate the percentage change in growth between the three year (G3) and ten year (G10) rates as using the following formula, ((G3-G10)/G10)*100.  The results for the world are presented in the color map at the top of the post.  Countries to the right of the 0 on the legend experienced accelerating growth, and on the left, decelerating growth.  While most countries experienced accelerating growth, the three countries with the largest membership bases, the United States, Brazil and Mexico, all experienced decelerating growth.  As listed in table three, African countries occupied five of the top ten positions, Europe occupied four and Oceania the remaining position. 

Armand L. Mauss asked in an article published in the International Journal of Mormon Studies, can there be a second harvest in Europe , (“Can There Be A “Second Harvest”? : Controlling the Costs of Latter-day Saint Membership in Europe,” June 7, 2013).  He even suggested an explanation for the growth.

Among the most recent and effective method for involving members in the missionary program is one that was “pilot-tested” in 2003, with the encouragement of two apostles, and finally implemented during the next two years in all of the stakes of the Europe Central Area, and perhaps in other areas as well. This method uses the CES classes with their Young Single Adults as “Institute Outreach Centers.” Under the ultimate direction of the local stake and mission presidents, these YSAs join with full-time missionaries to invite and bring young people of the same general age range (18 – 30) to local LDS Church buildings for Family Home Evenings, Institute classes, cultural and intellectual events, socials, and sports activities. Through these events, missionaries get many opportunities to teach young investigators in the chapels with YSA members present. So far the results of this program have been promising, not only in conversions but in retentions, for 80% of those converted through the Institute Outreach Centers are still active a year after baptism. Social scientists have long known that people in this transitional age range comprise the “demographic” most likely to be open to new ideas and experiences, including religious ones, so this approach appears to be a very effective “marketing strategy” for reaching the most likely “customers.”

While the growth rates in the European countries are still relatively small, they illustrate that the church can have success in secular, high income countries with low birth rates.  These programs may be successful for a second reason.  Not only do they attract and retain converts, they provide a grounds for youth to meet and marry LDS youth.  The Church seems to be stressing the formation of Young Single Adult wards and branches in the United States.  Perhaps the European success offers an explanation.  I would love to see the same strategy applied in Argentina, where I served a mission.  My limited experience suggested that youth who were lost could not find an LDS spouse. 

Table 3.  The Ten Countries with the Greatest Acceleration in Membership Growth over the Past Three Years

Country	Acceleration Rate	2013 Membership
Belgium	245.77	6,145
Botswana	198.36	3,021
French Polynesia	183.09	23,594
Cape Verde	115.48	10,796
Finland	111.38	4,866
Portugal	99.01	41,917
Liberia	94.02	8,081
Switzerland	72.91	8,741
Angola	68.62	1,436
Kenya	57.58	57,748

Growth is certainly easier to achieve in countries with high birth rates.  My next effort at examining growth will adjust the growth and acceleration rates for the total fertility rate by country.  Knowing how to grow in low birth rate countries is important because the birth rate continues to fall around the world.

Growth by Country of the Jehovah’s Witnesses in 2013

This is the second of three posts statistically comparing The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to the Jehovah’s Witnesses.  The first post compared the geographic distribution of members.  This post examines their international growth by country, and the final, growth over time.  The same disclaimer applies to this post as the fist.  My comparison is statistical, not theological.  Nothing presented should be viewed as indicating that one church is superior to the other.
 

Some basic definitions are in order.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses count a person as a publisher if he or she reports at least one hour teaching non-members per month.  The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints count as members children of record and people eight years and older who have been baptized.  Children of record refers to the children of members who are not yet nine years-old.  To be somewhat redundant, a child of a member who turns nine without being baptized is no longer part of the Church membership tally. 

The first color map shows the distribution of the growth in peak publishers throughout the world and the second, growth in Mormon membership.  There are similarities and differences to the distribution of growth.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses map looks darker green signifying lower growth but the nature of the map is due to the fastest growing country, Burundi, being geographically small and growing faster than other countries.  The table below the text compares the top ten fastest growing countries for both Churches.  Again, Mormon growth looks higher but this is at least in part due to comparing apples and oranges, or more accurately, participating and non-participating members. 

Both churches were growing faster in Africa than elsewhere.  Six of the top ten countries for the Jehovah’s Witnesses and eight for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints were in Africa.  Two of the countries, Madagascar and Uganda made both lists.  In Asia, Malaysia made both lists as well.  In addition, Taiwan and Thailand made the Jehovah’s Witnesses list.  Both Churches had one South American country, Ecuador for the Jehovah’s Witnesses and Guyana for the Latter-day Saints complete their lists. 

Growth in Jehovah’s Witnesses Peak Publishers and LDS Membership: 2013-2003

Country	Peak Publishers		Members
Burundi	9.04	Cameroon	20.65
Madagascar	7.33	Togo	18.66
Rwanda	7.30	Malaysia	15.26
Angola	6.82	Guyana	15.11
Malaysia	6.82	Malawi	14.99
Uganda	6.35	Mozambique	13.32
Taiwan	6.25	Madagascar	13.24
Thailand	6.00	Uganda	13.21
Equatorial Guinea	5.75	Ethiopia	12.35
Ecuador	5.43	Botswana	10.53

For countries with more than 1,000 peak publishers or members in 2013.  

Geographic Distribution of Jehovah’s Witnesses in 2013

(Updated April 9, 2014 to include a omitted citation and correct a reporting error.) This is the first of three posts statistically comparing The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to the Jehovah’s Witnesses.  The first post compares the geographic distribution of members, the second, the geographic distribution in growth of members and the final, growth over time.  My comparison is statistical, not theological.  While I am a Mormon and I believe that my Church offers a more direct path to truth and light than any other, nothing presented should be viewed as indicating that one church is superior to the other.


The Jehovah’s Witnesses present three types of membership numbers, peak publishers, average publishers, and memorial attendance.  I elected to report the peak publishers.  To be recorded as a publisher, a person must report at least one hour teaching non-members per month.  The color map shows the distribution of peak attenders throughout the world.  There are similarities and differences to the distribution of Jehovah’s Witnesses and Mormons.  As shown in the table that follows the text, both churches have more members in the United States than any other country.  Mexico and Brazil are the second and third highest in membership.  The Philippines is seventh in the Jehovah’s Witness ranking, and fourth in the Mormon ranking.  The remaining seven positions diverge considerably.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses have a greater presence in Africa, not surprising given the prohibition on African blacks holding the priesthood that was lifted in 1978.  Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia all rank in the Jehovah’s Witnesses top ten.  Two European countries, Italy and Russia, and an Asian country, Japan, round out the top ten.  In the Mormon top ten, but not the Jehovah’s Witnesses are Chile, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador and the United Kingdom.
A comparison of the two maps also suggests that the Jehovah’s Witnesses have maintain a presence in more countries than The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, but this may be part illusion.  For example, both convert Cubans living outside of their home countries but the Jehovah’s Witnesses show those members in their reported statistics.  The Church does not.  The wider international presence is part reality.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses are more regionally self-sufficient.  They often authorize these members to establish congregations and conduct missionary activities whereas the Church does not (see Martinich. "Comparing the International Growth of Latter-day Saints, Seventh Day Adventists, and Jehovah's Witnesses" for a more fuller comparison of organizational structure.) 
 
Jehovah’s Witnesses Peak Publishers: 2013

Country	Peak Publishers	Rank	Members	Rank
United States	1.219,931	1	6,321,416	1
Mexico	806,506	2	1,317,700	2
Brazil	767,439	3	1,209,974	3
Nigeria	351,205	4	109,998	20
Italy	248,743	5	24,970	39
Japan	216,472	6	126,407	17
Philippines	189,101	7	675,166	4
Congo, Dem Rep	188,872	8	34,547	38
Zambia	170,861	9	3,044	80
Russia	168,123	10	21,709	43

Chile, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador and the United Kingdom round out the top ten for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.