Rapid Growth in Developing Countries

Mat at “LDS Church Growth” posted an interesting forecast of missions that he believed would be created in the next year.  They are divided into 15 missions that he believes have a very high probability of being created and 35 missions with a moderate probability.  The high probability missions are in red in the table; four are in South America, one is in Oceania, one in Asia, and nine are in Africa.  Only three moderate probability missions are in the United States.  None are in Australia, Canada or Europe.  Preparing the post taught me just how little I know about growth in the church; it is a first attempt to systematically list variables that might affect growth.  The rest of the post compares several economic variables of the seven countries with the largest LDS populations to the countries where to possible new missions are located.

Country	Since	Members	Pop (millions)	Member Density	GDP Per Person	Birth Rate	Life Exp.	Literacy Rate	Internet Users
USA	1830	6,229,233	309	2.0%	46,770	1.4%	78.11	99%	75%
Mexico	1875	1,273,199	111	1.1%	14,162	2.0%	76.06	91%	21%
Brazil (2)	1928	1,173,533	195	0.6%	10,224	1.8%	71.99	87%	33%
Philippines	1961	661,598	94	0.7%	3,399	2.6%	71.09	93%	6%
Chile	1956	570,833	17	3.4%	14,304	1.5%	77.34	94%	32%
Peru	1956	508,812	30	1.7%	8,504	1.9%	70.74	93%	24%
Argentina	1925	399,440	41	1.0%	14,144	1.8%	76.56	97%	28%
Ecuador	1965	202,935	14	1.4%	7,840	4.2%	75.30	91%	10%
Liberia	1987	5,863	41	0.0%	373	3.7%	41.84	58%	1%
Nigeria	1978	103,898	158	0.1%	2,124	3.4%	46.94	68%	7%
Cameroon	1993	1,136	20	0.0%	2,139	4.3%	53.69	68%	4%
DR Congo	1986	30,435	68	0.1%	306	4.4%	54.36	61%	0%
Ethiopia	1991	1,450	85	0.0%	826	4.4%	55.41	43%	0%
Angola	1993	1,046	19	0.0%	5,939	2.3%	38.2	67%	3%
Botswana	1990	1,693	2	0.1%	13,706	2.3%	61.85	81%	6%
South Africa	1903	57,546	50	0.1%	9,748	3.1%	48.98	86%	8%
Zimbabwe	1950	20,908	13	0.2%	152	2.1%	45.77	91%	11%
Papua New Guinea	1980	20,194	7	0.3%	1,912	2.8%	66.34	57%	19%
Avg Large Membership	1920	1,498,772	124	1.39%	15,216	1.9%	74.24	93%	32%
Avg Rapid Growth	1966	264,305	66	.39	5,161	3.0%	58.30	75%	11%

There is overlap between countries with high growth and countries with large LDS populations.  Brazil, the Philippines and Peru have rapid growth and are on both lists. 

GDP Per Person

The church is growing rapidly in relatively poor countries where it is allowed to preach to gospel.  The annual GDP per person is a measure of wealth of a country.  Countries with large LDS populations are three times wealthier than those experiencing the most rapid growth having an annual GDP per person of $15,216 compared to $5,161.  There is great variation within both groups.  From the list of rapidly growing countries, Botswana has a GDP per capita of $13,706 compared to Liberia, DR Congo, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe which all have GDP per person of less than $1,000.  The map, “GDP Per Person” makes the same point.  The brighter yellow the richer the country, the darker red, the poorer.  The green points are the locations of Mat's projected missions.  Although the Church appears to be growing rapidly in poorer regions, there are restrictions on proselytization in many other poor nations such as China, India and Pakistan. 

Birth Rate as a Percentage of Population

The areas of rapid church growth have a higher birth rate as a percentage of population (3.0%) than the high membership countries (1.9%).  The map “Birth Rate as a Percentage of Population” makes the point that the areas with high church growth have relatively high birth rates, the darker the red, the lower the birth rate, and the brighter the yellow, the higher the birth rate.  Perhaps this is should be an expected outcome when the Church teaches that families are important in this life and the next.

Life Expectancy

 

Life expectancy is almost 16 years greater in countries where the church has a large membership base.  The map confirms that the rest of the world is more like the countries with large memberships than the countries with high growth. 

Literacy Rate

The trend is clear and the causality.  Poor countries are less educated.  Countries with rapid growth are less literate (75%) than those with a large number of members (93%). 

Internet Usage Rate

I used the Internet usage rate as a proxy for technological advance.  Clearly, the countries enjoying rapid growth are less technologically advanced than countries with a large membership base.  Only 11% of the former have access to the Internet compared with 32% of the latter.  

As I look at the maps and table, I am filled with questions, not answers.  Why has growth been slower in Australia than New Zealand or Argentina than Chile? Statistical analysis is need to draw stronger inference.