Sunday, December 9, 2012

Rapid Growth in Developing Countries



Mat at “LDS Church Growth” posted an interesting forecast of missions that he believed would be created in the next year.  They are divided into 15 missions that he believes have a very high probability of being created and 35 missions with a moderate probability.  The high probability missions are in red in the table; four are in South America, one is in Oceania, one in Asia, and nine are in Africa.  Only three moderate probability missions are in the United States.  None are in Australia, Canada or Europe.  Preparing the post taught me just how little I know about growth in the church; it is a first attempt to systematically list variables that might affect growth.  The rest of the post compares several economic variables of the seven countries with the largest LDS populations to the countries where to possible new missions are located.




Country


Since


Members

Pop
(millions)

Member
Density
 GDP Per Person

Birth Rate

Life Exp.

Literacy Rate

Internet Users
USA
1830
6,229,233
309
2.0%
46,770
1.4%
78.11
99%
75%
Mexico
1875
1,273,199
111
1.1%
14,162
2.0%
76.06
91%
21%
Brazil (2)
1928
1,173,533
195
0.6%
10,224
1.8%
71.99
87%
33%
Philippines
1961
661,598
94
0.7%
3,399
2.6%
71.09
93%
6%
Chile
1956
570,833
17
3.4%
14,304
1.5%
77.34
94%
32%
Peru
1956
508,812
30
1.7%
8,504
1.9%
70.74
93%
24%
Argentina
1925
399,440
41
1.0%
14,144
1.8%
76.56
97%
28%
Ecuador
1965
202,935
14
1.4%
7,840
4.2%
75.30
91%
10%
Liberia
1987
5,863
41
0.0%
373
3.7%
41.84
58%
1%
Nigeria
1978
103,898
158
0.1%
2,124
3.4%
46.94
68%
7%
Cameroon
1993
1,136
20
0.0%
2,139
4.3%
53.69
68%
4%
DR Congo
1986
30,435
68
0.1%
306
4.4%
54.36
61%
0%
Ethiopia
1991
1,450
85
0.0%
826
4.4%
55.41
43%
0%
Angola
1993
1,046
19
0.0%
5,939
2.3%
38.2
67%
3%
Botswana
1990
1,693
2
0.1%
13,706
2.3%
61.85
81%
6%
South Africa
1903
57,546
50
0.1%
9,748
3.1%
48.98
86%
8%
Zimbabwe
1950
20,908
13
0.2%
152
2.1%
45.77
91%
11%
Papua New Guinea
1980
20,194
7
0.3%
1,912
2.8%
66.34
57%
19%
Avg Large Membership
1920
1,498,772  
124
1.39%
15,216
1.9%
74.24
93%
32%
Avg Rapid Growth
1966
264,305
66
.39
5,161
3.0%
58.30
75%
11%


There is overlap between countries with high growth and countries with large LDS populations.  Brazil, the Philippines and Peru have rapid growth and are on both lists. 

GDP Per Person

The church is growing rapidly in relatively poor countries where it is allowed to preach to gospel.  The annual GDP per person is a measure of wealth of a country.  Countries with large LDS populations are three times wealthier than those experiencing the most rapid growth having an annual GDP per person of $15,216 compared to $5,161.  There is great variation within both groups.  From the list of rapidly growing countries, Botswana has a GDP per capita of $13,706 compared to Liberia, DR Congo, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe which all have GDP per person of less than $1,000.  The map, “GDP Per Person” makes the same point.  The brighter yellow the richer the country, the darker red, the poorer.  The green points are the locations of Mat's projected missions.  Although the Church appears to be growing rapidly in poorer regions, there are restrictions on proselytization in many other poor nations such as China, India and Pakistan. 

Birth Rate as a Percentage of Population


The areas of rapid church growth have a higher birth rate as a percentage of population (3.0%) than the high membership countries (1.9%).  The map “Birth Rate as a Percentage of Population” makes the point that the areas with high church growth have relatively high birth rates, the darker the red, the lower the birth rate, and the brighter the yellow, the higher the birth rate.  Perhaps this is should be an expected outcome when the Church teaches that families are important in this life and the next.

Life Expectancy

Life expectancy is almost 16 years greater in countries where the church has a large membership base.  The map confirms that the rest of the world is more like the countries with large memberships than the countries with high growth. 

Literacy Rate

The trend is clear and the causality.  Poor countries are less educated.  Countries with rapid growth are less literate (75%) than those with a large number of members (93%). 

Internet Usage Rate
I used the Internet usage rate as a proxy for technological advance.  Clearly, the countries enjoying rapid growth are less technologically advanced than countries with a large membership base.  Only 11% of the former have access to the Internet compared with 32% of the latter.  

As I look at the maps and table, I am filled with questions, not answers.  Why has growth been slower in Australia than New Zealand or Argentina than Chile? Statistical analysis is need to draw stronger inference.
 

No comments:

Post a Comment