Sunday, September 15, 2013

Enrollment Rates in Seminary by State

Seminary Enrollment Rate 2012            Seminary Enrollment Rate 2008
Seminary Rate US 2012Seminary Rate US 2008
I originally wanted to use the Seminary enrollment rate as a proxy for activity in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints; on a country by country basis, the seminary enrollment rate is close to activity rates estimated by other or reported by the Church.  For the United States, I believe they overestimate the actual enrollment rate.  To understand why, I must explain how I calculated the rates.
The seminary enrollment rate is equal to the number of students enrolled in Seminary divided by the seminary age youth in the Church.  I did not know the latter number, so I estimated it by calculating the ratio of seminary age youth in each state by the state’s population and multiplied this ratio by the membership in the state.  If the Church membership has the same age distribution as the state as a whole, my estimates will be unbiased.  Because the birthrate of Church members may be higher than the nation as a whole, the seminary enrollment rates may be biased upward. 

The Seminary enrollment rate improved over time but the improvement is difficult to depict graphically as seen in the maps, “Seminary Enrollment Rate 2012” and “Seminary Enrollment Rate 2008.”  Both depict the Seminary enrollment rate by color with the dark red being the highest enrollment and bright yellow, the lowest.  The data in the table was used to construct the maps.  The data showed an increase in the Seminary enrollment rate from 59.06% in 2008 to 61.78% in 2012.  One aspect of the data was surprising.  As the number of seminary students rose from 196,393 in 2008 to 204,558 in 2012, the estimated percentage of members who are Seminary age fell from 5.57% to 5.32%.  In a previous post, “A Model of Variables Affecting Missionaries Set Apart,” I found that Seminary enrollment was a causal variable affecting the number of missionaries set apart.  Other things equal, as Seminary enrollment increases, the number of missionaries increase.  But other things have not been equal.  The increase in missionaries set apart that began in 2012, prior to the surge, was due to greater participation in the Seminary, not simply an increase in Seminary age youth. 
As always, answering one question leads to at least another.  In “Seminary Activity Rates by Country,” I wrote, “my guess is that activity rates are higher in areas with high concentrations of Latter-day Saints.”  The data seem to support my thought, correlation or simple regression could give it statistical support.  Released-time Seminary may contribute to high enrollment rates in Utah, but does the program extend beyond Utah into other states with high concentrations of Saints or is it the high concentration itself sufficient to produce high enrollment rates?  More time series data would also be nice. 
The Seminary Enrollment Rate by State from 2008 through 2012
State 2012 2011 2008
Alabama 33.36 21.67 29.72
Alaska 53.85 52.55 55.47
Arizona 65.66 63.80 60.00
Arkansas 36.97 35.84 37.48
California 42.29 40.66 41.64
Colorado 59.23 57.14 55.48
Connecticut 25.67 26.00 24.39
Delaware 50.66 45.73 56.22
Florida 36.28 36.14 37.30
Georgia 45.93 46.25 44.31
Hawaii 51.93 51.22 48.14
Idaho 71.67 70.39 69.84
Illinois 42.75 43.04 44.11
Indiana 44.61 44.11 46.93
Iowa 45.50 48.15 46.63
Kansas 39.21 39.43 38.83
Kentucky 32.71 32.80 25.15
Louisiana 23.63 22.47 21.48
Maine 34.32 36.82 33.73
Maryland 37.01 34.55 29.66
Massachusetts 30.07 28.83 26.72
Michigan 65.87 38.55 39.00
Minnesota 58.27 55.28 56.75
Mississippi 23.05 22.58 25.17
Missouri 56.40 53.48 50.24
Montana 50.74 49.07 43.66
Nebraska 34.98 30.83 29.36
Nevada 58.46 58.17 56.81
New Hampshire 69.64 75.18 80.16
New Jersey 24.11 25.54 27.89
New Mexico 36.34 36.67 35.98
New York 30.02 28.52 29.75
North Carolina 45.60 42.71 40.72
North Dakota 45.08 42.80 41.42
Ohio 45.68 48.07 45.18
Oklahoma 34.98 35.11 33.48
Oregon 56.35 56.00 55.64
Pennsylvania 40.13 35.34 37.95
Rhode Island 50.92 47.49 40.34
South Carolina 28.09 30.38 30.50
South Dakota 30.87 31.59 29.25
Tennessee 44.91 45.24 48.91
Texas 44.65 43.22 42.83
Utah 72.14 71.93 74.17
Vermont 38.97 35.81 37.88
Virginia 54.47 51.60 49.51
Washington 57.80 56.97 58.10
West Virginia 34.19 35.00 35.52
Wisconsin 42.19 44.16 41.30
Wyoming 65.28 62.10 58.59
USA 61.78 59.86 59.06

No comments:

Post a Comment