Southern Baptist Convention Membership by State: 2011
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints operates in a complex and competitive religious market within the United States where competition between denominations for adherents remains strong even as the public grows more secular. To understand Church growth, some understanding of the nature of the religious market and its participants is necessary. Because I live in Texas, and more importantly, because I could find data, I begin a description of the religious market participants by exploring membership data of the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC).
Wikipedia describes the SBC as “the world's largest Baptist denomination and the largest Protestant body in the United States, with nearly 16 million members as of 2012. This also makes it the second largest Christian body in the United States, after the Catholic Church. The SBC website provides a brief history and description.
The Southern Baptist Convention (SBC), organized in 1845 in Augusta, Georgia, has grown into a national network of more than forty-five thousand churches and church-type missions with nearly sixteen million members who worship in more than two dozen languages each week across the United States and its territories. Southern Baptists provide direct support for almost ten thousand individuals who serve across the nation and around the world in direct ministry as the hands and feet of Jesus Christ, ministering to at least 377 people groups in 153 countries, many of whom have little access to the Gospel in their native language. Southern Baptists also provide ministerial training and education for more than sixteen thousand full-time and part-time students through their six theological seminaries.
Using membership data from SBC annuals, I constructed the Table “Selected Membership data from the SBC,” and the SBC to Mormon Membership Ratio: 2011 and 2004” which is present below. The SBC annuals combine several states when listing membership. I decomposed the numbers by dividing the membership by the number of states in the group and using that number for each state. The data from the table was used to construct the three maps. The first map, “Southern Baptist Convention Membership by State: 2011,” shows membership by state. States with the largest membership are dark red. As membership declines, the color becomes lighter until it is a bright yellow. I did not provide a map for 2004 because my eye could not detect a difference between it and the 2011 map. The table paints a slightly different picture. During the seven year time period, membership declined 2.79%. The Baptist Press describes a SBC task force that will attempt to devise a plan to reverse the trend in “Decline in SBC baptisms being studied by pastors' task force.” The article did not list causes. I offer two guesses. The first is a declining birth rate and the second is rising secularism, problems that seem to affect all denominations in the United States.
The SBC like The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is a regional church. While Mormon membership is concentrated in the Intermountain West, SBC membership is concentrated in the South. Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Alabama each have more than one million members. Outside of California, the Western and New England states have the lowest number of members.
SBC to Mormon Membership Ratio: 2011 SBC to Mormon Membership ratio: 2004
The maps, “SBC to Mormon Membership Ratio: 2011,” and “SBC to Mormon Membership ratio: 2004” show the SBC membership by state divided by the Mormon membership by state. Mormon membership for the earlier period is from 2005 rather than 2004 for the simple reason that I have the data. The data for the map is also in the table following the post. In words, the ratio tells how many Southern Baptists there are for each Mormon by state. Twenty two states have more Southern Baptists than Mormons. The ratio is highest in Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee and lowest in Utah, Idaho and Washington. One state, Rhode Island is a push with a ratio of one.
A close comparison of the two maps shows that the most recent is more yellow. As the SBC membership declined slightly, the Mormon membership rose 9.42%. Use of 2005 membership data softened the trend a tad as Mormon membership grew from 2004 to 2005. I was not able to determine how SBC membership records are maintained, so the actual numbers should be interpreted with caution but the trend is almost certainly correct. Without solid data, my guess is that the growth in the Mormon Church relative to the SBC is due to slightly better membership retention, a more aggressive missionary program and higher birth rate. What else would it be? More to come.
Selected Membership data from the SBC and SBC to Mormon Membership Ratio: 2011 and 2004
| State | 2011 SBC Membership | 2004 SBC Membership | 2011 SBC/Mormon Membership | 2004 SBC/Mormon Membership |
| Alabama | 1,039,228 | 1,080,255 | 29.55 | 33.40 |
| Alaska | 15,036 | 15,454 | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| Arizona | 95,740 | 110,647 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Arkansas | 519,537 | 535,975 | 18.49 | 22.08 |
| California | 399,821 | 393,041 | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| Colorado | 45,065 | 64,606 | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| Connecticut | 3,909 | 3,826 | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Delaware | 56,700 | 59,152 | 11.38 | 13.82 |
| Florida | 1,123,747 | 1,055,976 | 8.08 | 8.39 |
| Georgia | 1,400,023 | 1,396,814 | 17.63 | 20.12 |
| Hawaii | 16,115 | 14,991 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Idaho | 8,593 | 9,726 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Illinois | 207,766 | 217,073 | 3.72 | 4.09 |
| Indiana | 100,034 | 97,613 | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| Iowa | 12,736 | 13,269 | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| Kansas | 42,794 | 47,809 | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| Kentucky | 750,272 | 779,059 | 23.09 | 26.56 |
| Louisiana | 541,327 | 581,116 | 18.71 | 22.15 |
| Maine | 3,909 | 3,826 | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| Maryland | 56,700 | 59,152 | 1.34 | 1.54 |
| Massachusetts | 3,909 | 3,826 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Michigan | 32,605 | 39,239 | 0.76 | 0.93 |
| Minnesota | 9,165 | 9,275 | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| Mississippi | 688,815 | 718,830 | 32.05 | 36.40 |
| Missouri | 588,227 | 648,862 | 8.82 | 10.93 |
| Montana | 11,183 | 12,026 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Nebraska | 42,794 | 47,809 | 1.84 | 2.23 |
| Nevada | 31,837 | 22,958 | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| New Hampshire | 3,909 | 3,826 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| New Jersey | 22,095 | 29,197 | 0.69 | 0.97 |
| New Mexico | 90,514 | 98,988 | 1.32 | 1.58 |
| New York | 33,044 | 24,352 | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| North Carolina | 1,243,901 | 1,269,873 | 15.86 | 18.57 |
| North Dakota | 2,901 | 3,482 | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| Ohio | 115,316 | 144,489 | 1.96 | 2.62 |
| Oklahoma | 713,717 | 758,336 | 16.26 | 19.56 |
| Oregon | 32,174 | 38,762 | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| Pennsylvania | 22,095 | 29,197 | 0.44 | 0.65 |
| Rhode Island | 3,909 | 3,826 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| South Carolina | 708,780 | 724,461 | 18.81 | 21.76 |
| South Dakota | 2,901 | 3,482 | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| Tennessee | 1,074,138 | 1,118,135 | 22.97 | 28.79 |
| Texas | 2,828,170 | 2,873,553 | 9.26 | 11.42 |
| Utah | 8,593 | 9,726 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Vermont | 3,909 | 3,826 | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| Virginia | 630,524 | 646,810 | 6.95 | 8.03 |
| Washington | 32,174 | 38,762 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| West Virginia | 29,748 | 32,242 | 1.76 | 1.99 |
| Wisconsin | 9,165 | 9,275 | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| Wyoming | 10,848 | 10,000 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| USA | 15,487,438 | 15,932,704 | 2.49 | 2.80 |
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