Enrollment Rates in Seminary by State

Seminary Enrollment Rate 2012            Seminary Enrollment Rate 2008

I originally wanted to use the Seminary enrollment rate as a proxy for activity in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints; on a country by country basis, the seminary enrollment rate is close to activity rates estimated by other or reported by the Church.  For the United States, I believe they overestimate the actual enrollment rate.  To understand why, I must explain how I calculated the rates.
The seminary enrollment rate is equal to the number of students enrolled in Seminary divided by the seminary age youth in the Church.  I did not know the latter number, so I estimated it by calculating the ratio of seminary age youth in each state by the state’s population and multiplied this ratio by the membership in the state.  If the Church membership has the same age distribution as the state as a whole, my estimates will be unbiased.  Because the birthrate of Church members may be higher than the nation as a whole, the seminary enrollment rates may be biased upward. 

The Seminary enrollment rate improved over time but the improvement is difficult to depict graphically as seen in the maps, “Seminary Enrollment Rate 2012” and “Seminary Enrollment Rate 2008.”  Both depict the Seminary enrollment rate by color with the dark red being the highest enrollment and bright yellow, the lowest.  The data in the table was used to construct the maps.  The data showed an increase in the Seminary enrollment rate from 59.06% in 2008 to 61.78% in 2012.  One aspect of the data was surprising.  As the number of seminary students rose from 196,393 in 2008 to 204,558 in 2012, the estimated percentage of members who are Seminary age fell from 5.57% to 5.32%.  In a previous post, “A Model of Variables Affecting Missionaries Set Apart,” I found that Seminary enrollment was a causal variable affecting the number of missionaries set apart.  Other things equal, as Seminary enrollment increases, the number of missionaries increase.  But other things have not been equal.  The increase in missionaries set apart that began in 2012, prior to the surge, was due to greater participation in the Seminary, not simply an increase in Seminary age youth. 
As always, answering one question leads to at least another.  In “Seminary Activity Rates by Country,” I wrote, “my guess is that activity rates are higher in areas with high concentrations of Latter-day Saints.”  The data seem to support my thought, correlation or simple regression could give it statistical support.  Released-time Seminary may contribute to high enrollment rates in Utah, but does the program extend beyond Utah into other states with high concentrations of Saints or is it the high concentration itself sufficient to produce high enrollment rates?  More time series data would also be nice. 
The Seminary Enrollment Rate by State from 2008 through 2012

State	2012	2011	2008
Alabama	33.36	21.67	29.72
Alaska	53.85	52.55	55.47
Arizona	65.66	63.80	60.00
Arkansas	36.97	35.84	37.48
California	42.29	40.66	41.64
Colorado	59.23	57.14	55.48
Connecticut	25.67	26.00	24.39
Delaware	50.66	45.73	56.22
Florida	36.28	36.14	37.30
Georgia	45.93	46.25	44.31
Hawaii	51.93	51.22	48.14
Idaho	71.67	70.39	69.84
Illinois	42.75	43.04	44.11
Indiana	44.61	44.11	46.93
Iowa	45.50	48.15	46.63
Kansas	39.21	39.43	38.83
Kentucky	32.71	32.80	25.15
Louisiana	23.63	22.47	21.48
Maine	34.32	36.82	33.73
Maryland	37.01	34.55	29.66
Massachusetts	30.07	28.83	26.72
Michigan	65.87	38.55	39.00
Minnesota	58.27	55.28	56.75
Mississippi	23.05	22.58	25.17
Missouri	56.40	53.48	50.24
Montana	50.74	49.07	43.66
Nebraska	34.98	30.83	29.36
Nevada	58.46	58.17	56.81
New Hampshire	69.64	75.18	80.16
New Jersey	24.11	25.54	27.89
New Mexico	36.34	36.67	35.98
New York	30.02	28.52	29.75
North Carolina	45.60	42.71	40.72
North Dakota	45.08	42.80	41.42
Ohio	45.68	48.07	45.18
Oklahoma	34.98	35.11	33.48
Oregon	56.35	56.00	55.64
Pennsylvania	40.13	35.34	37.95
Rhode Island	50.92	47.49	40.34
South Carolina	28.09	30.38	30.50
South Dakota	30.87	31.59	29.25
Tennessee	44.91	45.24	48.91
Texas	44.65	43.22	42.83
Utah	72.14	71.93	74.17
Vermont	38.97	35.81	37.88
Virginia	54.47	51.60	49.51
Washington	57.80	56.97	58.10
West Virginia	34.19	35.00	35.52
Wisconsin	42.19	44.16	41.30
Wyoming	65.28	62.10	58.59
USA	61.78	59.86	59.06