The Higher the Percentage of Mormons in a State, the Lower the Internet Pornography Use

In “Red Light States: Who Buys Online Adult Entertainment?,” Benjamin Edelman (2009) examined Internet pornography subscriptions of one of the top ten providers using data aggregated by zip code.  To give readers an easier to understand geographic setting, he aggregated that data to the state level and gave critics of the Church new ammunition with a single data point that found that Utah had the highest rate of subscribers per thousand home broadband users of any state in the union. Zephaniah who writes for Mormon Monsters was typical in her conclusions to other critics blaming conservative sexual practices among members for high rates of pornography subscriptions. The purpose of this post is to offer evidence that those who suggest that Mormon sexual standards contribute to pornography use equivocate logically and provide additional empirical support suggesting that pornography use falls in a state as the percentage of Mormons rises.

 

Mormons and STDs

A funny thing happened while studying one topic.  I found that the variables I was using predict the level of STDs by state.  The variables are the percentage of women married, the percentage of highly religious as measured by a Gallup poll, the number of Mormons as a percentage of the state population (percentage Mormon), the percentage of males between 15 and 34, and the percentage with at least a high school education.  The statistical results are at the bottom of the post.  The variables explained 79.3 percent of the variation in the data and was significant at the 0.0 percent level.  Only the variable measuring the percentage of the population with at least a high school education was not statistically significant at the 10% level or better.  The remaining variables were significant at the 0.0 percent level.  More interesting than knowing variables that were statistically significant was knowing their sign.  They show that values important to Mormons result in lower levels of STDs. 

Date Rape and the Coase Theorem

 

Date rape is non-consensual sexual intercourse by a person known to the victim.  According to Criminal Law Lawyer Source, eighty percent of rape victims know the attacker and over ninety percent are women.  Approximately 50 percent assailants and victims consumed alcohol prior to the incident (Abbey,et al, “Alcohol and Sexual Assault”).  The use of alcohol is problematic because it limits the ability of the parties to contract.  Date rape is common; one in four women will suffer from it (Abbey,et al, “Alcohol and Sexual Assault”). 

The Coase Theorem states that the amount of an externality generating activity will be the same regardless of the assignment of rights if negotiating costs are zero of low.  In the case of date rape, rights are not well assigned and negotiating costs may be high.  Rape is the externality; it is the uncompensated impact of one person’s actions on a bystander.  Assuming a heterosexual event and a woman as victim, many factors can confuse consent.  As mentioned above, alcohol consumption limits the ability to contract implying that negotiating costs are high.  In the absence of well assigned property rights and low negotiating costs, sexual intercourse during dates will be too high.

The problem can be resolved by assigning property rights.  Although the theorem states that the amount of an externality (date rape) will be the same regardless of who is assigned the rights, assignment in this case should be given to women.  In most cases, men are stronger than women and a man’s strength could confuse consent if men were assigned these rights.  To limit date rape, grant women these rights.  Intercourse cannot occur without the women’s explicit consent which must be given in writing or in the presence of a third party of the woman’s choosing.  Consent cannot be given if a woman has been drinking prior to consent. 

Evaluating Membership Growth: 2003-2013

 

Earlier this week, the Newsroom of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints released membership numbers by country.  LDS Church Growth offered analysis of the growth of membership in percentage terms and numerical increase.  There were few surprises.  Countries in Africa dominated the list of the top twenty countries with the highest annual growth rate.  The countries with the most members, the United States, Brazil and Mexico, dominated the list of countries with the largest numerical increase accounting for 49.3 percent of increase in membership.  In this post, I calculate the average annual geometric growth rate of the Church over two time periods, three years and ten years and use them to calculate the percentage increase in growth using the ten year growth rate as the base.  Whereas the geometric growth rate is the speed of growth, the percentage change in growth acts as a measure of acceleration. 

The ten countries that experienced the most rapid growth over the past decade are listed in the table 1.  To qualify for the list, a country must have more than 1,000 members in 2013.  Eight of these countries are in Africa. 

Table 1.  The Ten Countries with the Fastest Growing Membership over the Past Decade

Country	Growth Rate	2013 Membership
Cameroon	20.65	1,359
Togo	18.66	2,307
Malaysia	15.26	9,259
Guyana	15.11	5,474
Malawi	14.99	1,653
Mozambique	13.32	6,900
Uganda	13.21	12,380
Ethiopia	12.35	1,807
Botswana	10.53	3,021
Cote d’Ivoire	10.32	22,576

The ten countries that experienced the most rapid growth over the last three years are listed in table 2.  As before, a country must have more than 1,000 members by 2013 to qualify.  All ten countries on the list are in Africa.  Growth in Africa has been so rapid that it should pass both Europe and Oceania in total membership before the end of the decade!

Table 2.  The Ten Countries with the Fastest Growing Membership over the Past Three Years

Country	Growth Rate	2013 Membership
Botswana	31.42	3,021
Togo	22.79	2,307
Malawi	21.35	1,653
Ethiopia	17.11	1,807
Angola	15.50	1,436
Liberia	14.05	8,081
Sierra Leone	13.66	13,078
Madagascar	13.41	9,826
Cape Verde	13.13	10,796
Cote d’Ivoire	10.32	22,576

I used the three and ten year growth rates to calculate the percentage change in growth between the three year (G3) and ten year (G10) rates as using the following formula, ((G3-G10)/G10)*100.  The results for the world are presented in the color map at the top of the post.  Countries to the right of the 0 on the legend experienced accelerating growth, and on the left, decelerating growth.  While most countries experienced accelerating growth, the three countries with the largest membership bases, the United States, Brazil and Mexico, all experienced decelerating growth.  As listed in table three, African countries occupied five of the top ten positions, Europe occupied four and Oceania the remaining position. 

Armand L. Mauss asked in an article published in the International Journal of Mormon Studies, can there be a second harvest in Europe , (“Can There Be A “Second Harvest”? : Controlling the Costs of Latter-day Saint Membership in Europe,” June 7, 2013).  He even suggested an explanation for the growth.

Among the most recent and effective method for involving members in the missionary program is one that was “pilot-tested” in 2003, with the encouragement of two apostles, and finally implemented during the next two years in all of the stakes of the Europe Central Area, and perhaps in other areas as well. This method uses the CES classes with their Young Single Adults as “Institute Outreach Centers.” Under the ultimate direction of the local stake and mission presidents, these YSAs join with full-time missionaries to invite and bring young people of the same general age range (18 – 30) to local LDS Church buildings for Family Home Evenings, Institute classes, cultural and intellectual events, socials, and sports activities. Through these events, missionaries get many opportunities to teach young investigators in the chapels with YSA members present. So far the results of this program have been promising, not only in conversions but in retentions, for 80% of those converted through the Institute Outreach Centers are still active a year after baptism. Social scientists have long known that people in this transitional age range comprise the “demographic” most likely to be open to new ideas and experiences, including religious ones, so this approach appears to be a very effective “marketing strategy” for reaching the most likely “customers.”

While the growth rates in the European countries are still relatively small, they illustrate that the church can have success in secular, high income countries with low birth rates.  These programs may be successful for a second reason.  Not only do they attract and retain converts, they provide a grounds for youth to meet and marry LDS youth.  The Church seems to be stressing the formation of Young Single Adult wards and branches in the United States.  Perhaps the European success offers an explanation.  I would love to see the same strategy applied in Argentina, where I served a mission.  My limited experience suggested that youth who were lost could not find an LDS spouse. 

Table 3.  The Ten Countries with the Greatest Acceleration in Membership Growth over the Past Three Years

Country	Acceleration Rate	2013 Membership
Belgium	245.77	6,145
Botswana	198.36	3,021
French Polynesia	183.09	23,594
Cape Verde	115.48	10,796
Finland	111.38	4,866
Portugal	99.01	41,917
Liberia	94.02	8,081
Switzerland	72.91	8,741
Angola	68.62	1,436
Kenya	57.58	57,748

Growth is certainly easier to achieve in countries with high birth rates.  My next effort at examining growth will adjust the growth and acceleration rates for the total fertility rate by country.  Knowing how to grow in low birth rate countries is important because the birth rate continues to fall around the world.

Growth by Country of the Jehovah’s Witnesses in 2013

This is the second of three posts statistically comparing The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to the Jehovah’s Witnesses.  The first post compared the geographic distribution of members.  This post examines their international growth by country, and the final, growth over time.  The same disclaimer applies to this post as the fist.  My comparison is statistical, not theological.  Nothing presented should be viewed as indicating that one church is superior to the other.
 

Some basic definitions are in order.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses count a person as a publisher if he or she reports at least one hour teaching non-members per month.  The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints count as members children of record and people eight years and older who have been baptized.  Children of record refers to the children of members who are not yet nine years-old.  To be somewhat redundant, a child of a member who turns nine without being baptized is no longer part of the Church membership tally. 

The first color map shows the distribution of the growth in peak publishers throughout the world and the second, growth in Mormon membership.  There are similarities and differences to the distribution of growth.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses map looks darker green signifying lower growth but the nature of the map is due to the fastest growing country, Burundi, being geographically small and growing faster than other countries.  The table below the text compares the top ten fastest growing countries for both Churches.  Again, Mormon growth looks higher but this is at least in part due to comparing apples and oranges, or more accurately, participating and non-participating members. 

Both churches were growing faster in Africa than elsewhere.  Six of the top ten countries for the Jehovah’s Witnesses and eight for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints were in Africa.  Two of the countries, Madagascar and Uganda made both lists.  In Asia, Malaysia made both lists as well.  In addition, Taiwan and Thailand made the Jehovah’s Witnesses list.  Both Churches had one South American country, Ecuador for the Jehovah’s Witnesses and Guyana for the Latter-day Saints complete their lists. 

Growth in Jehovah’s Witnesses Peak Publishers and LDS Membership: 2013-2003

Country	Peak Publishers		Members
Burundi	9.04	Cameroon	20.65
Madagascar	7.33	Togo	18.66
Rwanda	7.30	Malaysia	15.26
Angola	6.82	Guyana	15.11
Malaysia	6.82	Malawi	14.99
Uganda	6.35	Mozambique	13.32
Taiwan	6.25	Madagascar	13.24
Thailand	6.00	Uganda	13.21
Equatorial Guinea	5.75	Ethiopia	12.35
Ecuador	5.43	Botswana	10.53

For countries with more than 1,000 peak publishers or members in 2013.  

Geographic Distribution of Jehovah’s Witnesses in 2013

(Updated April 9, 2014 to include a omitted citation and correct a reporting error.) This is the first of three posts statistically comparing The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to the Jehovah’s Witnesses.  The first post compares the geographic distribution of members, the second, the geographic distribution in growth of members and the final, growth over time.  My comparison is statistical, not theological.  While I am a Mormon and I believe that my Church offers a more direct path to truth and light than any other, nothing presented should be viewed as indicating that one church is superior to the other.


The Jehovah’s Witnesses present three types of membership numbers, peak publishers, average publishers, and memorial attendance.  I elected to report the peak publishers.  To be recorded as a publisher, a person must report at least one hour teaching non-members per month.  The color map shows the distribution of peak attenders throughout the world.  There are similarities and differences to the distribution of Jehovah’s Witnesses and Mormons.  As shown in the table that follows the text, both churches have more members in the United States than any other country.  Mexico and Brazil are the second and third highest in membership.  The Philippines is seventh in the Jehovah’s Witness ranking, and fourth in the Mormon ranking.  The remaining seven positions diverge considerably.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses have a greater presence in Africa, not surprising given the prohibition on African blacks holding the priesthood that was lifted in 1978.  Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia all rank in the Jehovah’s Witnesses top ten.  Two European countries, Italy and Russia, and an Asian country, Japan, round out the top ten.  In the Mormon top ten, but not the Jehovah’s Witnesses are Chile, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador and the United Kingdom.
A comparison of the two maps also suggests that the Jehovah’s Witnesses have maintain a presence in more countries than The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, but this may be part illusion.  For example, both convert Cubans living outside of their home countries but the Jehovah’s Witnesses show those members in their reported statistics.  The Church does not.  The wider international presence is part reality.  The Jehovah’s Witnesses are more regionally self-sufficient.  They often authorize these members to establish congregations and conduct missionary activities whereas the Church does not (see Martinich. "Comparing the International Growth of Latter-day Saints, Seventh Day Adventists, and Jehovah's Witnesses" for a more fuller comparison of organizational structure.) 
 
Jehovah’s Witnesses Peak Publishers: 2013

Country	Peak Publishers	Rank	Members	Rank
United States	1.219,931	1	6,321,416	1
Mexico	806,506	2	1,317,700	2
Brazil	767,439	3	1,209,974	3
Nigeria	351,205	4	109,998	20
Italy	248,743	5	24,970	39
Japan	216,472	6	126,407	17
Philippines	189,101	7	675,166	4
Congo, Dem Rep	188,872	8	34,547	38
Zambia	170,861	9	3,044	80
Russia	168,123	10	21,709	43

Chile, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, Ecuador and the United Kingdom round out the top ten for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. 

A Game Theoretic Approach to LDS Dating

The March 2014 issue of the “Ensign” contains an article my Elder Tad R. Callister titled, “The Lord’s Standard of Morality” that has provoked much comment.  The most controversial paragraph may be

The dress of a woman has a powerful impact upon the minds and passions of men.  If it is too low or too high or too tight, it may prompt improper thoughts, even in the mind of a young man who is striving to be pure. 

Understanding Elizabeth

In this post, I develop a game theoretic approach to Mormon youth dating.  The agents in this problem are Elizabeth and George who are both actively engaged in the Mormon youth program.  The agents might as easily be reversed to Joseph and Joan.  The main assumption of the model was taken from Callister who observed

Our dress affects not only our thoughts and actions but also the thoughts and actions of others.

Elizabeth is a typical LDS youth; she wants to “choose the right” but she also wants to be stylish and craves acceptance of her peers, particularly boys.  She was excited that George, the cutest boy in the ward, flirted with her at a combined youth activity.

Her excitement was tempered by a conversation she overheard in which George told friends that immodestly dressed girls made him hot.  She concludes that his statement is consistent with four personality types.  First, George is normal devout member like her and more likely to commit a “confessable sin” while dating a person who is immodest in dress or action; he was confessing a weakness and not betraying a hope.  George is blustering, a wannabe bad boy trying to avoid the label of “goody two-shoes.”  He might be personable but with average moral standards and not those of the Church.  Finally, he might be a “player” betraying preferences, not confessing weaknesses.  She estimates the odds of each as righteous (40%), blustering (30%), common (20%) and player (10%).  She decides to go because the risk of a bad outcome is low. 

The Impact of Government Corruption on Church Growth

Hylton, Rodionova and Deng published an enlightening paper entitled “Church and State: An Economic Analysis” (American Law and Economics Review, V13, N2, 2011) that examines consequences of regulation, taxation and subsidization of religion on a country’s level of corruption, economic growth and income inequality.  In part, their abstract reads

The results suggest that laws and practices burdening religion enhance corruption. Laws burdening religion reduce economic growth and are positively associated with inequality.

I will describe their paper in more detail in a future post but now I would like to focus on a similar question.  What is the impact of corruption on the growth of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints?  Growth is measured by the increase in the number of members between 20012 and 2011.  The data on corruption was provided by Transparency International and their 2012 index is reproduced in the world map, “Corruption Index by Country.”  The higher the index, the lower the level of corruption.  Graphically, the darker the blue, the less corrupt the government.  The colors move from blue to green, then yellow, brown and red.  Red also represents missing data.  The corruption index did not include Greenland, South Sudan, Western Sahara, and French Guiana. 

Dallin Oaks on Social Trends

Total Fertility Rate

At General Conference in October 2013 Dallin Oaks gave what many regard as a controversial talk due to his restatement of the position of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints on gay marriage.  The Church views homosexual sex as sin like any other sexual act outside the bonds of marriage.  This position closes the door to “God approved” sexual fulfillment of same sex attraction and defines much of the conflict between the traditional Christian and secularist view on sexuality.  Traditional Christians believe that joy is the result of individuals subordinating personal desires to God by obeying His commandments whereas secularists believe that joy is the product of self-expression.  Conflicting visions strain friendly discussion.¹ 

Does an Age Explain Membership Growth in the U.S.

Median Age by State: 2012

The United States like much of the  world is experiencing declining birth rates and its inevitable consequence, an aging population.  In “Does an Aging World Explain Lower Convert Baptisms?,” I find a statistically significant relationship between the median age in seventy five countries and the growth in net membership of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.  Older countries grow more slowly than younger countries.  I find that the same relationship exists in the United States; membership grows more slowly in old states than young states. 

Median age and the birth rate of a state measure age.  Data came from the U.S. Census population estimates for 2012. I consider two models, one using the median age and the other replacing median age with the birth rate.  The variable, the number of missions in a state, adjusts for the size of Church and the intensity of missionary effort.  All variables in both models are statistically significant and the birth rate acts as a nearly identical substitute variable for median age.  The higher the median age, the lower the increase in net membership and the higher the birth rate, the lower the increase in net membership.   

The model specification is weak in two ways.  First, growth is tied to the existing population but my simple model specification does not capture this aspect of population growth.  Second, the data should be expanded to include more than one time period.  My results have limitations but they are suggestive that the growth of the Church is slowed by an aging population.  I offer two possible explanations.  People are more likely to change beliefs when pushed by events such as the formation of a family, the birth of children and financial stress.  These events are more likely to occur early in life rather than late.  Finally, falling fertility is driving the increase in median age.  A generation or two ago, the growth of the Church was greater because LDS families were bigger.  The conversion of a young family was likely to add three or four children to the Church rather than today’s 2.1. 

Hinch on Evangelicals and Secularism

Two trends have contributed to a decline in religious belief in much of the world, rising secularism and declining fertility.  I write about these trends in “Does an Aging World Explain Lower Convert Baptisms?” and “Secularism.”  Secularism may be one cause of falling birth rates.  Secularists believe that fulfillment of an individual’s desires is central to happiness.  Religionists believe that restraint through obedience to God’s commands brings happiness.  These belief systems are diametrically opposed.  In “Tough future for evangelicals, numbers reveal,” Jim Hinch writes about a decline in membership in evangelical churches and names growing secularism as a cause.  I whole heartedly recommend the article but I will focus on several points that I believe will have particular interest to Mormon readers.

Cultural Christianity is dying.  Hinch quotes Rick Warren who said,

Cultural Christianity is dying.  Genuine Christianity is not. The number of cultural Christians is going down because they never really were Christian in the first place. They don't have to pretend by going to church anymore.

Does an Aging World Explain Lower Convert Baptisms?

The number of converts to The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints per missionary has been trending downward since 1983 as seen in the graph, “Convert Baptisms per Missionary Set Apart.”  Missionaries set apart is an imperfect representation of missionaries serving at any given period of time or the number of missionaries who served during a year.  Young men serve for two years; young women for eighteen months, and senior missionary couple for six, twelve, eighteen or twenty-three months.  If the number of senior missionaries has been rising over time relative to the number of young men and women, then the downward trend is overstated. The graph may overstate a trend of growing difficulty in finding converts, but I believe that it is a trend and I offer a possible explanation for the difficulty, an aging world population.

Traditionally, converts to the Church have been young.  The Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life report, “Mormons in America Certain in Their Beliefs, Uncertain of Their Place in Society,” reports that

Roughly half of converts to Mormonism (51%) say they joined the church before turning 24, including 26% who converted before reaching the age of 18. One-third (34%) say they converted between the ages of 24 and 35, 9% became Mormon between the ages of 36 and 50, and 6% joined the church when they were over the age of 50.

The Purpose of Membership Records

The prophecy that states that the gospel “shall roll forth, until it has filled the whole earth.” (Daniel 2:31–45 and D&C 65:2) is being fulfilled. The number of members exceeds 15 million, stakes span continents and temples dot the land. Like Joseph, the Church he restored has been greeted with devotion, curiosity, and skepticism. As the Church grows, some question membership claims correctly noting high levels of inactivity in some areas, hinting perhaps that the generous counting of members is a marketing ploy designed to create a bandwagon effect or talking points for missionaries. Compare this belief to a Church news story dated April 11, 2007 that reads, “…the Church itself makes no statistical comparisons with other churches and makes no claim to be the fastest-growing Christian denomination.” Yet, the membership records are consistent with the purpose of the Church that Joseph restored through direct revelation.

Moroni explains whey records are kept (Moroni 6: 4).

And after they had been received unto baptism, and were wrought upon and cleansed by the power of the Holy Ghost, they were numbered among the people of the church of Christ; and their names were taken, that they might be remembered and nourished by the good word of God, to keep them in the right way, to keep them continually watchful unto prayer, relying alone upon the merits of Christ, who was the author and the finisher of their faith.

The emphasis added is mine. Members within the Church attempt to care for the spiritual and temporal needs of all our members, both the committed and the disaffiliated. It has been my experience that most disaffiliated members accept visits with some degree of hospitality. Those that do not are generally visited less frequently and of course, there are disaffiliated members that can’t be found despite diligent attempts to locate these “lost sheep.”

The Consequences of China’s One-child Policy?

Yesterday, the Chinese government announced the first major change to its one-child policy in thirty years; the government will now allow parents to have a second child if one or both is a single child (“China easing one-child policy amid elderly boom,” and “China to ease one-child policy, abolish labor camps, report says”).  The government implemented the program fearing Malthus’s four horsemen of natural population control: famine, misery, plague and war.  In “What to Expect when No One’s Expecting: America’s Coming Demographic Disaster,” Jonathan Last outlines some of the social problems the one-child policy has birthed: too few workers, i.e. taxpayers, to fund the retirement of the elderly, a labor shortage, and a dangerous sex imbalance of 1.23 boys for every girl. On the sex imbalance, Last writes

The inevitable result of this is a large cohort of men who—as a matter of mathematics—cannot marry.  The world has seen sex imbalances before.  From ancient Athens to Bleeding Kansas to China’s Taiping Rebellion, a skewed sex ratio has often preceded intense violence and instability.  So in addition to everything else, the Chinese will have a large cohort of military aged, unmarried men—tens of millions of them—floating around at precisely the moment when the country is facing the burden of its uncared-for elderly…

All of which suggests that what America needs to prepare for in the coming decades is not a shooting war with an expansionist China, but a declining superpower with a rapidly contracting economic base and an unstable political structure…

By midcentury, China will be losing 20 million people every five years and engineering a soft landing at an “ideal” birth rate will be difficult.  He suggest that supporting religion as a solution noting that “People who regularly attend church have more children than those who do not.”  I know of one religion that would be happy to supply missionaries to preach the gospel. 

Southern Baptist Convention Membership: 2011 to 2004

Southern Baptist Convention Membership by State: 2011

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints operates in a complex and competitive religious market within the United States where competition between denominations for adherents remains strong even as the public grows more secular.  To understand Church growth, some understanding of the nature of the religious market and its participants is necessary.  Because I live in Texas, and more importantly, because I could find data, I begin a description of the religious market participants by exploring membership data of the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC). 

NSA Spying and Missionary Work

I have studiously attempted to avoid interjecting United States politics into “Blu Principles,” focusing instead on events that affect the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and its members. In this post, I discuss the impact of the revelation of NSA spying on missionary work but I make no judgment on the overall value of the program or the current administration.  I don’t know enough about spying to give even a qualified opinion.  Instead, I offer the opinion that the news of NSA spying may have a negative impact on missionary work. 

NSA spying has been ubiquitous, covering both friends and foes.  While our friends don’t mind spying on terrorist groups, they don’t like spying on them.  Ken Dilanian and Janet Stobart of the Los Angeles Times write in “White House OKd spying on allies, U.S. intelligence officials say” that

France, Germany, Italy, Mexico and Sweden have all publicly complained about the NSA surveillance operations, which reportedly captured private cellphone conversations by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, among other foreign leaders.

I believe that there are two ways that news of NSA spying can harm missionary work.  First, governments might make it more difficult for missionaries from the United States to enter their countries by delaying or denying visas.  Second, in parts of the world, many believe that missionaries are an extension of the United States government working for the CIA.  I learned of this rumored relationship while in the Mission Training Center learning Spanish, the gospel and correct comportment.  We were taught that never, under any circumstance to insinuate that we worked with the CIA.  When I arrived in Argentina, I asked my Zone Leaders about this guidance suggesting that nobody would believe that the U.S. government would hire twenty year old men with limited capacity to speak Spanish and who wear what amounted to easily identifiable uniforms as spies.  They repeated the instructions that I had received earlier not to joke or insinuate that missionaries worked for the CIA.

Convert Baptisms per Mission in the United States

Converts Baptisms per Mission by State: 2012

Using my data on convert baptisms per state presented in “Convert, Child of Record Baptisms and Deaths for the Unites States in 2012“ and data on missions per state presented in the Mormon Newsroom, I calculated the number of convert baptisms per mission for each state.  The map “Converts Baptisms per Mission per State: 2012” visually presents the data shown in the table that follows the descriptive portion of the post.  The color code configuration rescaled data on estimated convert baptisms from zero to one and assigned colors from yellow to dark red. 

I encountered only one problem in organizing and estimating the data.  Some states did not have any missions and yet they have missionaries assigned from other states.  I used maps states from cumorah.com showing the missions that were active in each state.  My strategy was simple.  If a mission from one state provided missionaries to another, I subtracted out .2 missions (or .1)  from the mission state and added .2 missions (or .1) to the dependent state.

Convert, Child of Record Baptisms and Deaths for the Unites States in 2012

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints provides changes in membership in various locations on an annual basis.  The net change in membership is calculated subtracting last year’s membership from this year’s.  Given the change in membership, I used state level demographic data on the percentage of eight year olds and death rates for 2012 to estimate child of record baptisms, convert baptisms and deaths by state for the same year.  My method is mechanical rather that statistical so I cannot include statistical tests for the accuracy of my estimates.  In short, they are an educated guess.

Convert Baptisms by State. 

For those who continue reading after my disclosure, the table “Net Members by Child Baptisms, Convert Baptisms and Deaths” that follows the narrative section of the post contains my estimates.  The color code configuration rescaled data on estimated convert baptisms from zero to one and assigned colors from yellow to dark red.  Covert baptisms seem to depend on the number of members and the population of a state.  The five states with the most convert baptisms in 2012 were California, Texas, Arizona, Utah and Washington all have large number of members and or large populations.    

Growth in Latter-day Saints per 100 in the USA: 1977-2012

Since its forced exodus from Nauvoo, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has been associated Utah.  From Utah, the Church sent missionaries throughout the world to preach the restored gospel with considerable success but Utah remains the crown jewel.  It has more members than any country excluding the United States and more than twice as many members than any other state.  Stakes cover the state and temples dot the land.  As acceptance of the Church increased and economic opportunities opened, members left their refuge in Utah for other new homes, mixing with converts to bring growth in the Church in areas previously designated as the mission field.  In this post, I will describe dramatic growth in the Church outside of Utah and the Intermountain West by examining the growth in members per 100 between 1977 and 2012, repeat my hypothesis of member osmosis, and discuss areas of future research.

Members per 100: 2012                        Members per 100: 1977

The map “Members per 100: 2012 uses the usual color code configuration with member per 100 rescaled from zero to one and colors from yellow to dark red.  The map confirms what we know, that Utah and the intermountain states are more densely populated with members of the Church.  Juxtaposed to the map, “Members per 100: 1977,” little seems to have changed but the map hides more than it reveals due to high concentration of members in Utah and the low concentration in the east.  A doubling or even tripling of the members per 100 in states east of the Rocky Mountains does not cause a color variation large enough to be easily seen. 

Mormon and Catholic Finances: An Introduction

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is often referred to as America’s most prosperous religion, a term that is often left undefined and almost impossible to measure.  As a first effort to quantify the Mormon Church finances, I compare a statement from “Time Magazine” (“Mormons Inc.: The Secret of America's Most Prosperous Religion”), as quoted by the AP and posted to “Catholic Answers Forums.”

Time lists the church's assets as $12 billion in U.S. meeting houses and temples; $5 billion in meeting houses and temples in foreign countries; $6 billion in unspecified investments; $5 billion in ranch and farm real estate and $1 billion in "schools, etc."

Of its annual income of $5.9 billion, the vast majority -- $5.3 billion -- comes from tithing. Of that, $4.9 billion comes from church members living in the United States.

“The Economist” describes the financial position of the Catholic Church (“The Catholic church in America: Earthly concerns,” The Economist, Aug 18th 2012.)

The Economist estimates that annual spending by the church and entities owned by the church was around $170 billion in 2010 (the church does not release such figures). We think 57% of this goes on health-care networks, followed by 28% on colleges, with parish and diocesan day-to-day operations accounting for just 6% and national charitable activities just 2.7% (see chart). In total, Catholic institutions employ over 1m people, reckons Fred Gluck, a former McKinsey managing partner and co-founder of the National Leadership Roundtable on Church Management, a lay organisation seeking to improve the way the church is run. For purposes of secular comparison, in 2010 General Electric’s revenue was $150 billion and Walmart employed roughly 2m people.