Dallin Oaks on Social Trends

Total Fertility Rate

At General Conference in October 2013 Dallin Oaks gave what many regard as a controversial talk due to his restatement of the position of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints on gay marriage.  The Church views homosexual sex as sin like any other sexual act outside the bonds of marriage.  This position closes the door to “God approved” sexual fulfillment of same sex attraction and defines much of the conflict between the traditional Christian and secularist view on sexuality.  Traditional Christians believe that joy is the result of individuals subordinating personal desires to God by obeying His commandments whereas secularists believe that joy is the product of self-expression.  Conflicting visions strain friendly discussion.¹ 

Hinch on Evangelicals and Secularism

Two trends have contributed to a decline in religious belief in much of the world, rising secularism and declining fertility.  I write about these trends in “Does an Aging World Explain Lower Convert Baptisms?” and “Secularism.”  Secularism may be one cause of falling birth rates.  Secularists believe that fulfillment of an individual’s desires is central to happiness.  Religionists believe that restraint through obedience to God’s commands brings happiness.  These belief systems are diametrically opposed.  In “Tough future for evangelicals, numbers reveal,” Jim Hinch writes about a decline in membership in evangelical churches and names growing secularism as a cause.  I whole heartedly recommend the article but I will focus on several points that I believe will have particular interest to Mormon readers.

Cultural Christianity is dying.  Hinch quotes Rick Warren who said,

Cultural Christianity is dying.  Genuine Christianity is not. The number of cultural Christians is going down because they never really were Christian in the first place. They don't have to pretend by going to church anymore.

Convert Baptisms and Missionaries

Having identified variables that influence the supply for missionaries, and estimated the enrollment rate for seminary, I am ready to move in a new direction, identifying variables that influence the demand for the gospel as measured by the number of convert baptisms.  The data used was provided by “Statistical Reports” given in each April General Conference.  The graph, “Missionaries Serving and Convert Baptisms: 1977-2012” displays the data.  There is a statistically significant relationship between the number of missionaries and the number of convert baptisms.  For those interested in the statistical details, I regressed the number of convert baptisms on the number of missionaries for the entire time period.  Both the intercept term and the slope are statistically significant (2.49162, 3.50198), and the slope has the correct sign; it is positive.  Convert baptisms increases as more missionaries preach the gospel. 

The graph, “Convert Baptisms to Missionaries: 1977-2012,” shows the ratio of convert baptisms divided by then number of missionaries. The ratio has declined over the time period for which I have data.  Baptisms are harder to come by but why? 

Demographics

Our children are our future and the number of children is dependent on the birthrate.  Is there an optimal population and have we exceeded it?  Two articles present very different views of the future of our country and the world based on birth rate.  They both address the Malthusian conclusion that mankind faces an economically bleak future because population growth will outpace economic development.  Hunger, disease and war are positive checks that limit population growth to the world’s resource base.  A slightly more modern version paints the world as a spaceship with limited resources.  The more people that inhabit the spaceship, the fewer resources per person.  The problem with the theory is that it is not supported by empirical facts.  The world has never been economically better off.  Scarcity has caused innovation and the world is richer than at any time in the past.  While there must be an optimal maximum population, we have not reached it.

The first, “Let’s Talk About Sex: Why More Babies Means More Economic Growth,” is by Jerry Bowyer who believes that many countries face economic and political decline because their birthrates are well below replacement levels.  Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the United States and China, just to name a few prominent countries all have birthrates below the replacement level.

Secularism

Every generation presents obstacles to parents who attempt to raise their children to be faithful members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and to the leaders of the church that provide community support to parents and preach the gospel.  Generally, these obstacles are shared by other Christian denominations and religions.  Secularism is a current challenge.

The Pew Institute reports (“Nones” on the Rise”) that 20% of Americans and 33% of Americans who under thirty have no religious affiliation.  Many of the non-religiously affiliated or nones report some religious or spiritual practice such as a belief in God (68%) or daily prayer (21%).  Most believe that churches benefit society by strengthening communities and aiding the poor.  They are not interested in becoming affiliated, viewing organized religions as too concerned with money, political influence and behavioral rules and they are decidedly more secular than the religiously affiliated. 

In a thought provoking article, Rod Dreher (“Sex After Christianity”) describes a battle between cosmologies, differing theories on the natural order of the universe.  Christian cosmology which holds that God and his commandments, particularly in regards to sex, dictate that people restrict their behavior, not because it is good for them but because it is right and good for society dominated European belief for centuries.  Beginning with the Enlightenment, a new cosmology has made inroads against the old.  The modern views an individual’s desires as central to self-definition.  They are polar opposites.  Whereas the Christian seeks sexual fulfillment by restraint, the modern finds fulfillment in sexual expression.