Wednesday, January 16, 2013

More from YouTube

He (Christ) inviteth them all to come unto him and partake of his goodness; and he denieth none that come  unto him, black and white, bond and free, male and female; and he remembereth the heathen; and all are alike unto God, both Jew and Gentile .II Nephi 26:33)

With the goal of preaching the gospel to the world, Church President Thomas Monson’s announced at the October General Conference that young men can serve missions at 18 and young women at 19.  In a new conference after the announcement, Elder Jeffrey R. Holland of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles said the change would “hasten” the Work but did not know what the impact on the number of missionaries would be although he suggested growth would occur.  He said that the impact would be better understood by the fall of 2013. 

 

Three months after the announcement, applications are encouragingly high.  A January 7, 2013 news release from the Church, “Response to Mormon Missionary Age Announcement Remains Enthusiastic and Unprecedented,” reports that applications to serve missions remain high, approximately 100% of the previous year.  The applications are divided evenly between young men and young women.  Beginning in February, a new wave of applications from 18 year-old young men graduating from high school in May and June is anticipated.

Will the new applications change the ratio of Elders to Sisters or the placement of missionaries around the world?  YouTube videos of young men and young women receiving their calls as a sample of all calls received.  I divided calls into those for Elders and Sisters, and by geographic location of the calls.  The data is reported in the following table. 

  Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Total Before % Total Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Total After % Total % Church
Elders

9

10

18

37

77.1

17

16

33

34.7

 
Sisters

3

5

3

11

22.9

29

33

62

65.3

 
Total

12

15

21

48

100.0

46

49

95

100.0

 
United States

5

0

9

14

29.2

13

11

24

25.3

29.4

North America not US

2

2

0

4

8.3

3

10

13

13.7

15.3

South America

2

3

3

8

16.7

12

13

25

26.3

21.8

Europe

2

6

3

11

22.9

11

12

23

24.2

12.4

Asia

0

1

4

5

10.4

5

1

6

6.3

10.9

Africa

0

2

0

2

4.2

1

0

1

1.1

6.2

Oceania

0

1

2

3

6.3

2

2

4

4.2

4.1

Because the applications are likely to be seasonal, I compared November and December 2011 to November and December of this year.  I do not believe that I have enough data points to statistically measure changes yet although I guess here and here.  Last year, there were 19 YouTube videos from young men.  This year, there were 33, and increase of 74%.  Last year, there were 8 videos from young women.  This year there were 62, and increase of 675%. 

I believe that the Missionary Committee will assign missionaries to maximize church growth subject to political and economic constraints.  Using data from the “Church Newsroom, Facts and Statistics” I have reported the percentage of worldwide missions by region in the final column of the  table.  The Church is operating 340 missions.  The placement of missionaries by region after the announcement appears similar to the placement prior to it.  The number of calls to the United States, the remainder of North America, South America, and Asia, both prior to and after the announcement, match the percent of missions in their regions.  Only Europe seems to be overrepresented by the YouTube sample and only Africa and Oceania, underrepresented.    

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