YouTube as a Data Source

Like all other LDS fathers with 18 and 17 year old sons, I wonder how President Monson’s announcement changing age requirements for missionaries will affect the number of missionaries serving and the location of their calls.  I thought of several ways to measure changes in numbers but all were impossible to implement until last night.  I decided to use YouTube as a data source.  I searched “LDS mission calls December 2012” on YouTube and compared the results to the same search for December 2011.  My sample size is very small, approximately .5% of calls received in December, 2011. The sample may also contain biases. For example, perhaps more people post to YouTube now than a year ago. My conclusions are tenuous but better than nothing. Here is what I learned.

	Dec 2011	Dec 2012
Elders	10	16
Sisters	5	33
Total	15	49
United States		11
North American less US	2	10
South America	3	13
Europe	6	12
Asia	1	1
Africa	2
Oceania	1	2

Calls to Elders increased by 60% over the previous year compared to the 151% increase in applications reported here.  The increase in calls was 40% as large as the increase in applications.  I suspect more of the initial applications will be completed in coming months.  Many future missionaries are still in high school.  Because they cannot complete the application process until four months before they are able to serve, their applications will be reflected in a larger increase in missionary calls beginning in February, four months before their graduations. 
Calls to Sisters increased by 540% compared to the 1,130% increase in applications reported in my post linked above.  The increase was 47% as large as the increase in applications.  In both months sampled, more Sisters posted their calls than Elders.  Adjusting for the over representation of Sisters on YouTube, I estimate that 43.7% of calls in December went to Sisters.  If this trend continues, 32.8% of missionaries will be Sisters.  This number compares closely to the estimate of 32.0% that I made based off the initial applications to serve that the church reported in October (here).    To repeat, my sample size is small so my conclusions could be substantially wrong but I enjoyed the time spent watching the calls.  I am impressed by the strength of the youth who are excited to serve the Lord where he decides their service will matter most.