Convert, Child of Record Baptisms and Deaths for the Unites States in 2012

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints provides changes in membership in various locations on an annual basis.  The net change in membership is calculated subtracting last year’s membership from this year’s.  Given the change in membership, I used state level demographic data on the percentage of eight year olds and death rates for 2012 to estimate child of record baptisms, convert baptisms and deaths by state for the same year.  My method is mechanical rather that statistical so I cannot include statistical tests for the accuracy of my estimates.  In short, they are an educated guess.

Convert Baptisms by State. 

For those who continue reading after my disclosure, the table “Net Members by Child Baptisms, Convert Baptisms and Deaths” that follows the narrative section of the post contains my estimates.  The color code configuration rescaled data on estimated convert baptisms from zero to one and assigned colors from yellow to dark red.  Covert baptisms seem to depend on the number of members and the population of a state.  The five states with the most convert baptisms in 2012 were California, Texas, Arizona, Utah and Washington all have large number of members and or large populations.    

 

Child of Record Baptisms by State

The child or record baptisms by state closely reflected the number of members in each state.  Utah had the highest number of child of record baptisms followed by California, Idaho, Arizona and Texas.  That is consistent with expectations, but my estimates probably overestimate Utah’s child of record baptisms relative to the rest of the country.  High birth rates and long life yield a high percentage of eight year olds of total population.  Utah has the highest concentration of eight year of any state, and Idaho, the second.

Member Deaths by State

As with convert baptisms, deaths closely follow the number of members in a state.  Utah, California, Idaho, Arizona and Texas. 

In future research, I will attempt to extend the number of years of my estimates and experiment with different birth rates for member populations in other states.   I will continue to search for bits of information that might confirm or reject my estimates.

Net Members by Child Baptisms, Convert Baptisms and Deaths

State	Net Members	Estimated Net Members	Estimated Child Baptisms	Estimated Convert Baptisms	Estimated Deaths
Alabama	541	430	169	626	365
Alaska	569	556	285	438	168
Arizona	8,965	8,138	4,103	6,872	2,837
Arkansas	575	462	159	597	294
California	8,717	8,577	4,879	8,649	4,951
Colorado	2,803	2,624	1,346	2,213	935
Connecticut	18	25	54	96	126
Delaware	98	84	36	92	44
Florida	3,968	3,038	647	3,723	1,332
Georgia	1,181	1,116	583	1,114	582
Hawaii	1,418	1,235	517	1,252	533
Idaho	5,343	5,830	5,147	3,717	3,033
Illinois	676	632	361	726	454
Indiana	526	488	288	575	375
Iowa	620	510	175	582	247
Kansas	831	686	220	784	317
Kentucky	959	740	159	904	323
Louisiana	433	330	103	501	274
Maine	60	52	46	109	103
Maryland	1,098	884	226	995	338
Massachusetts	610	471	102	583	214
Michigan	482	482	407	457	382
Minnesota	438	429	276	384	231
Mississippi	212	163	77	300	214
Missouri	1,248	1,090	557	1,183	650
Montana	751	652	330	762	440
Nebraska	445	372	131	446	205
Nevada	2430	2,359	1,563	2,226	1,429
New Hampshire	72	76	75	66	65
New Jersey	516	402	114	553	264
New Mexico	705	662	388	832	559
New York	1,104	900	319	1,191	610
North Carolina	1,416	1,233	537	1,365	669
North Dakota	1,223	911	56	939	83
Ohio	905	784	393	962	570
Oklahoma	1,103	878	251	1,084	458
Oregon	1,541	1,508	1,142	1,635	1,269
Pennsylvania	580	484	272	736	524
Rhode Island	164	128	27	138	38
South Carolina	989	755	153	950	348
South Dakota	296	231	49	273	91
Tennessee	588	526	306	668	449
Texas	10,385	8,713	2,391	8,467	2,145
Utah	15,863	23,769	28,077	5,672	9,980
Vermont	208	158	22	175	39
Virginia	1,669	1,493	715	1,480	703
Washington	5,212	4,664	2,255	4,463	2,054
West Virginia	158	119	75	247	203
Wisconsin	483	410	157	466	214
Wyoming	1,048	987	628	878	519
USA	92,243	87,739	57,139	81,993	51,393