Convert and Member of Record Baptisms, and Deaths

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints reports convert baptism for the world (April Conference Statistical Reports), but does not break down the numbers by smaller geographic units like countries, states, missions or stakes.  The researcher in me recoils at this lack of data but the member in me rejoices at the frugality in the expenditure of tithes.  Building on prior work, I use demographic data by country to break down the increase in membership by country into convert baptisms, member of record baptisms and deaths. 
The Church also reports membership by country on an annual basis at the Church Newsroom.  I used that data to calculate the change in membership from 2011 to 2013.  This is the second piece of the puzzle.  The change in membership is equal to child of record baptisms plus convert baptisms less deaths and excommunications.  I used demographic data from the CountryData function of Wolfram’s Mathematica program to estimate proxies for child or record baptisms and deaths.  Excommunications are reported to be a small percentage of the change in membership and, because I could not devise a proxy, I assumed them to be zero.  This will create a slight downward bias in my estimate of child or record births and convert baptisms.
I estimated child baptisms by multiplying the birth rate by the church membership for each country.  Not all children born into the Church will be baptized.  I multiplied the Seminary enrollment rates reported in “Seminary Activity Rates by Country,” to reduce the births to Church members to an estimate of the number of births that were baptized as members.  This number is likely to be a lower bound as death and inactivity grow as members age; initial estimates of child or record baptisms will be too low and convert baptisms, too high.  To summarize, child of record baptisms are estimated multiplying membership by both the birth rate and the Seminary enrollment rate.  Deaths were easier to estimate.  I multiplied church membership by the death rate. 
With the change in membership, child of record baptisms and deaths in hand, I estimated convert baptisms by country.  I then summed my estimate of convert baptisms and found that they exceeded actual convert baptisms.  I then multiplied convert baptisms for each country by a factor of .79114 to produce an estimate of convert baptisms by country that summed to the correct number.  This implies that the number of child of record baptisms or deaths by country was too low.  Using my estimates of convert baptisms, I made a second estimate of child of record baptism by country by multiplying the original estimate until the new estimate plus the estimate of convert baptisms less deaths summed to the correct worldwide total.  The estimates are presented in the table in the second portion of the post.   

Country	Change in Membership	Estimated Change in Membership	Child of Record Baptisms	Convert Baptisms	Deaths
Africa
Cape Verde	1,297	1,067	92	1,023	48
Cote d’Ivoire	2,354	2,086	470	1,795	179
DR Congo	4,112	3,773	1,072	3,066	365
Ghana	3,809	3,576	1,176	2,838	437
Kenya	947	901	314	696	109
Liberia	846	750	191	682	123
Madagascar	1,173	1,049	242	871	64
Nigeria	6,100	5,389	1,677	5,479	1,766
R of Congo	1,776	1,486	164	1,370	48
Sierra Leone	1,580	1,413	376	1,259	222
South Africa	2,261	1,958	672	2,265	978
Uganda	1,074	864	72	916	124
Zimbabwe	2,209	1,883	370	1,848	335
Asia
Hong Kong	196	179	106	241	168
India	994	857	149	768	60
Indonesia	92	99	62	78	41
Japan	663	560	536	1,281	1,257
Mongolia	374	367	151	277	61
Philippines	13,568	14,261	7585	9,985	3,308
South Korea	587	530	310	730	510
Taiwan	1,276	1,059	232	1,209	382
Thailand	553	462	89	492	118
Europe
Armenia	59	55	24	55	24
Austria	51	51	36	59	43
Belgium	86	77	38	99	61
Denmark	-12	3	39	8	44
Finland	30	56	76	27	47
France	565	491	202	617	328
Germany	71	123	280	269	425
Hungary	96	73	18	118	63
Ireland	98	89	30	83	23
Italy	527	457	172	553	269
Netherlands	83	75	48	109	82
Norway	118	109	43	106	40
Portugal	1,181	906	113	1,230	437
Russia	291	240	146	437	343
Spain	1,374	1,179	348	1,318	487
Sweden	60	73	81	86	93
Switzerland	114	123	87	111	75
Ukraine	163	159	121	215	176
UK	433	392	795	1,477	1,880
N. America
Canada	2,493	2,644	1,765	2,363	1,484
Costa Rica	1,492	1,347	360	1,147	159
Dom. Rep.	2,411	2357	1,037	1,930	610
El Salvador	2,705	2665	1,154	2,071	560
Guatemala	7,958	7658	2,885	5,932	1,159
Haiti	758	628	110	675	157
Honduras	6,249	5837	1,884	4,693	740
Jamaica	131	124	50	109	35
Mexico	44,501	40,302	11,554	35,115	6,366
Nicaragua	4,604	3,987	735	3,557	304
Panama	1,242	1,206	490	953	237
Puerto Rico	234	194	79	283	168
USA	92,183	110,397	86,086	74,145	49,834
Oceania
A. Samoa	218	345	334	73	62
Australia	4,225	3,843	1,248	3,522	927
Fiji	680	669	272	495	98
French Polynesia	775	813	401	522	109
Kiribati	915	721	41	803	123
Marshall Islands	180	172	62	133	23
New Zealand	1,384	1,487	984	1,246	743
Papua New Guinea	1,071	886	122	905	141
Samoa	1,507	1,734	1,136	1,031	434
Tonga	1,190	1.353	851	799	297
South America
Argentina	12,655	10,960	2,756	11,001	2,796
Bolivia	5,489	5,399	2,366	4,275	1,242
Brazil	36,441	32,621	9,462	30,201	7,041
Chile	6,883	6,270	2,769	6,926	3,425
Colombia	4,398	4,187	1,670	3,574	1,057
Ecuador	8,230	7,239	1,690	6,564	1,015
Paraguay	2,264	2,193	847	1,676	330
Peru	18,947	18,355	7,197	14,210	3,053
Uruguay	2,139	1,712	365	2,225	879
Venezuela	4,094	4,299	2,194	2,873	769